Okay, let's be real. Almost everyone assumed Solana would moon after the ETF launch. I mean, a Solana ETF! It makes this clunking sound, like a rocket ship poised for lift-off. Thus far, the story the numbers are telling is the exact opposite. Ethereum is still king. Why? Here’s my horse, and I can assure you this won’t be what you expect.

REX Shares' Size Matters Seriously

Let's talk about REX Shares. An underdog going big on a Solana Staking ETF. Put a little perspective on that against BlackRock, a titan with $11.5 trillion AUM compared to the REX Shares’ $5 billion. It’s David versus Goliath—but this time, David showed up to the tank fight with no weapon at all.

Think about it. Institutions love liquidity. They have to be able to transfer tens of billions of dollars without creating huge price fluctuations. A smaller ETF provider? That raises concerns. Will there be sufficient trading volume to justify their huge investment? Are they even prepared, able and/or willing to handle such large inflows and outflows?

Just as you can’t fill the Grand Canyon with a garden hose, you cannot fix our crumbling infrastructure that way. Okay, we get it – you’re adding water – but are you really making a meaningful impact? I think not.

This isn't a knock on REX Shares. They're pioneers! No, the market is a cold, hard place, and for better or for worse, size matters. The overwhelming power and influence that BlackRock has in the ETF market cannot be overstated.

Staking ETF Adds Extra Complexity

"Solana Staking ETF." Sounds fancy, right? Sounds innovative! The average investor? They see the word “staking” and they roll their eyes.

  • What is staking?
  • What are the risks?
  • What happens if the network gets hacked?
  • What are the tax implications?

You might say, well a plain-vanilla Solana ETF would be a lot simpler. It’s the difference between a savings account with assured returns versus an options trading strategy. Both can produce incredible returns, but one is a little more straightforward to understand.

The added complexity creates friction. It’s intimidating to a casual investor and burdens even the most experienced pros with additional due diligence. In a fast-moving market like crypto, though, that friction can be lethal.

Here's an unexpected connection. Remember the early days of the internet? In a twist that might surprise web designers, the less complicated the site, the better it did. Why? Because people crave simplicity. Crypto is no different.

SEC Approval? Or SEC Ambiguity?

This is the big one, isn't it? The elephant in the room. The SEC's lack of full S-1 approval. And, perhaps even more importantly, it’s creating chaos on Polymarket, and it’s probably giving institutional investors heartburn.

Look, institutions crave regulatory clarity. It’s their clients’ money they are risking, and they should know the rules of the game before they go out and risk it. The SEC’s lack of clarity? It’s a pretty big warning sign.

It's like building a house on quicksand. Okay, so maybe the blueprints aren’t too bad, but the architect’s drawings can’t hide the crumbling foundation. And nobody wants their hard earned dollars going down the drain.

Here's the unintended consequence: this uncertainty might be a good thing in the long run. It’s pushing the market to be more prudent, more focused. It’s weeding out the dead wood and rewarding the best riders.

Think about it. If the SEC has provided Solana with a complete, free and clear thumbs-up, would we be discussing this issue today? Probably not. Would the market be as disciplined? Doubtful.

The SEC’s reluctance has been infuriating, but potentially may be a hidden gift.

So yes, Solana’s ETF launch was a huge deal. But it's not a magic bullet. REX Shares' size, the complexity of staking, and the SEC's ambiguity are all holding it back, at least for now.

Will Solana eventually overtake Ethereum? Maybe. Rest assured, it’s going to be one heck of a long, tough battle. It’s going to take a lot more than one ETF to make that happen. It’s going to take a lot of innovation, adoption and, frankly, luck. It's going to be a wild ride.

Don't underestimate Ethereum. It's the OG. It's the foundation. And it isn’t going down without a fight.

And one last thought: Don't underestimate Ethereum. It's the OG. It's the foundation. And it's not going down without a fight.