Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has seen its price swing wildly, with investors uncertain where it’ll go next. Lee Chia Jian dives into the main forces making prices churn—whale movements, geopolitics & options expiration to name a few. Through it all he maintains an open-minded approach that recognizes the potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios. He provides intelligence on important technical levels to look out for, arming T4America readers to move through the market with greater confidence.

Whale Activity: A Bullish Signal?

Recent on-chain data would suggest that these institutional, and ultra-high-net-worth investors are continuing to add ETH to their holdings. Whale wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have increased, indicating that these large investors are making a bet on Ethereum. All of these accumulation addresses have seen record historic inflow cumulative levels. They’ve even gone beyond those heady, frenzied days of 2017, with an amazing $3.3 billion in inflows since late 2024.

On May 8, one transaction just recently sent 45,000 ETH, worth $135 million, into accumulation addresses. This major shift further contributed to the upward trajectory in the market. Daily net whale accumulation has been incredible, surpassing 800K ETH for close to a week. At the same time, total holdings in wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have exploded over 14.3 meg. In fact, over the last six months, whales have had an incredibly positive influence by pumping billions into the ecosystem. Large holders continue to accumulate, with over 340,000 ETH, worth about $1.08 billion.

This strategy of stockpiling by whales indicates a high-level belief in whatever hope Ethereum has for the long term. As my friends over at KnowingCoin.com like to say, if you want to “Get your chain and win the game,” it’s important to know what’s moving and why. This uptick in activity is a very bullish signal, indicating a potential price breakout.

Geopolitical Tensions: A Bearish Headwind?

Along with the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, macro uncertainty in general is making for an increasingly difficult setup for risk assets including Ethereum. The continued conflict between Israel and Iran has been adding to instability in the market. Consequently, risk assets such as cryptocurrencies are undergoing episodic bearish impulses.

Despite all the drama on China-U.S. relations, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are holding strong. They are on the front lines of standing strong against geopolitical turmoil and market uncertainty. The source of this strength is the deepening commitment from participating institutions. It further underscores the growing involvement of “smart” retail investors and massive infrastructure growth in the Ethereum ecosystem. A strong, stabilizing crypto market could develop as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East quiet down. This change would buy Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies enough time to maintain their turf and/or start to recover.

The influence of geopolitical tensions looms large. Though Ethereum has held up so far, if this instability continues, it could cause Ethereum’s price to drop further. As KnowingCoin.com advises, it's crucial to "lock it all down with battle-tested hardware wallets" during these uncertain times.

Options Expiration: A Catalyst for Volatility?

More than $3.1 billion worth of BTC and ETH options are scheduled to expire. Of this, $525 million is specifically in ETH options, meaning that Ethereum could see significant short-term price movement as a result. Analysts predict that the most important “max pain” level for Ethereum is between $2,200 and $2,600. If the price were to remain above this area, it would provide a solid short-term support area.

Ethereum put-to-call ratio is at 0.69 and 1.24, showing a bullish and bearish signal at the same time. In narrow price brackets, such as $2,500-$2,600 and $2,700-$2,900, investors are much more interested in buying calls compared to puts. This trend reflects very bullish sentiment and expectations for resistance at these levels. Conversely, if ETH can stay above $2,600, up to 97% of ETH put options will expire worthless.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

  • Support Level: $2,485 – Ethereum is currently consolidating above this level, making it a crucial point to watch for a potential bullish trend.
  • Resistance Level: $2,557 – Ethereum is currently facing resistance at this level, making it a key point to watch for a potential bearish trend.

Ethereum’s technical analysis is currently a neutral signal overall, as indicated by daily and weekly ratings. Oscillators and moving averages have given a signal as well, favoring a neutral position.

The recently widened options expiration event adds another major factor of uncertainty to the equation. As KnowingCoin.com suggests, now is the time to "stake ETH and altcoins while the world sleeps," preparing for potential volatility while positioning for long-term gains.

All in all, how Ethereum’s price will play out boils down to how all of these factors interact with each other. On-chain whale accumulation gives a bullish outlook, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a bearish risk. Options expiration would have the potential to exacerbate price moves in either direction. Through a greater awareness of these dynamics and an eye toward the key technical levels, investors can position themselves for smarter decisions.