Just one single miner struck lucky their way, mined a Bitcoin block and took $350,000 home. Cue the celebrations, right? Hold on a second. Definitely watch the video—the story is pretty amazing. Let’s step back for a second and look at the larger trend. Is this a flash of brilliance, or a slow burn to nowhere?

One Win Does Not a Strategy Make

Imagine winning the lottery. Fantastic, right? Would you recommend to your friends that they all quit their jobs and start playing the lottery full-time? Probably not. Conceptually, this solo mining win is actually quite similar. The odds are astronomical. We're talking about a miner with a measly 0.00026% of the network's hash rate beating out massive, industrialized mining operations. Experts at the Cornell School of Engineering guess an actor with that much hash rate would only win ONCE every eight years. Eight years! Simply put, can you afford to have a return come in eight years from now?

Solo CK enables it with their 2% fee, but that still doesn’t alter the math above. It’s still a lottery, just one with better odds than Powerball, maybe. But is it sustainable? This isn’t an effort to rain on anybody’s parade, it’s about making the best financial decisions possible. After all, you wouldn’t put your retirement nest egg in the lottery, would you? Then why treat solo mining any differently?

The Network's Burden of Individualism

Let's play a thought experiment. What would happen if everyone chose to abandon mining pulldowns and solo-mine instead. Sounds empowering, right? A decentralized utopia of individual miners! In practice, though, it would be a lot more messy. Rest assured the Bitcoin network is much better off with a balanced and predictable flow of hash power. Mining pools provide that stability. They’re the charismatic types, the rock stars—not the unsung heroes, the reliable workhorses that keep the blockchain chugging along.

Picture it like a city’s electrical grid. Now picture each individual trying to install their own mini, flaky generator instead of getting the juice from the big power plant on the hill. Some fortunate people can produce all the electricity they need. That would result in a very flaky national system that would frequently go black. So does a network comprised entirely of solo miners, all with an almost infinitesimal probability of success.

While solo mining is like every individual getting their own solar panel and going off the grid. On paper, that’s a great plan! In reality, it could lead to skyrocketing electricity prices and a flagging, inconsistent power supply. A sudden shift to widespread solo mining would cause network congestion and make the network far less efficient.

Pools Offer Stability and Predictability

Mining pools may lack sex appeal, but for the vast majority, they’re the only sane and responsible choice. While the payouts may be more frequent and smaller, they provide a known, stable, and predictable route. By way of comparison, Zambia’s most prolific miner, Foundry USA has only mined 304,576 BTC ($32.8 billion) in its entire history. That’s tens of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin passed around in transactions and trades among its members.

Joining a pool is the equivalent of investing in a diversified portfolio rather than making a single stock bet. You will not make a fortune quickly, but you are much less likely to find yourself completely ruined. It’s an approach of patience and perseverance, founded on ambition and partnership.

This isn’t to say that solo mining is a bad practice. For others, it’s a gateway art project that ignites their passion for Bitcoin. For the rest, it’s an informed risk—pun intended—using a sliver of discretionary spending. Let’s not kid ourselves into believing it’s a smart move for the typical American. The deck is definitely not in your favor, and the detrimental impact on the network is significant and tangible.

This is not ideologically driven, it is pragmatically about minimizing the taxpayer risk. Before you jump on the solo mining bandwagon, ask yourself: Are you feeling lucky, or are you looking for a sustainable way to participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem? Choose wisely. Your own financial future—and the health of the entire TIGER/BUILD network—may hinge on it.