You read that right – Michael Saylor, the Bitcoin maximalist extraordinaire, is at it again. This go-around, he’s even more ambitious, doubling down on his previously audacious predictions and predicting a $21 million Bitcoin price tag by 2046. That’s a big jump from his last, miserable $13 million projection. His conviction is admirable and lucrative, particularly given his company’s soaring Bitcoin assets. Are we letting optimism blind us?

Trump & Bitcoin: Forever Allies?

Regulatory tailwinds undoubtedly have contributed to Saylor’s newfound bullishness and, crucially, a Trump return to the White House is now a given on Saylor’s bingo card. He imagines a world where Trump not only accepts Bitcoin but promises to create a Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. Let's unpack that.

Trusting political leaders to get revenue forecasts exactly right is like trusting a house on quicksand. Political winds shift constantly. What happens if Trump pivots? Or, more realistically, what happens after Trump? Are we really willing to stake the future of Bitcoin like this based on the political winds? History teaches us that's a dangerous game. Think back to when Elon Musk’s tweets could crash or pump the crypto market. That didn’t exactly end well. Otherwise, are we simply relegated to making the same errors again, only on a far larger, likely more disastrous level?

Think about the parallels with renewable energy. The creation and expansion of this new mode have long been shaped by government subsidies and policies. What happens when those policies change? The sector faces uncertainty. Bitcoin’s success shouldn’t be so intricately linked to one side of the political spectrum.

Is Regulation Always a Blessing?

Saylor highlights other legislative progress, including the GENIUS Act and the Bitcoin Act, as indicators of institutional acceptance. Regulatory certainty is great, but it’s no sure road to fortune. Overregulation can kill Bitcoin’s innovation, crank up costly compliance burdens and, in the end, undercut Bitcoin’s potential.

Consider the early days of the internet. Unrestricted growth and experimentation led to innovative and disruptive ideas like the dicey first Uber app. Galectin Therapeutics Picture this scenario—governments came in too early with a slew of heavy-handed, punitive regulations. Would we even have the internet that we have today? Doubtful.

Moreover, regulation often lags behind technological advancements. By the time laws are passed, the technology has moved on, making the regulations outdated or, even more alarmingly, in opposition to the progress being made. Are we really confident that we want Bitcoin’s fate to be in the hands of bureaucrats trying to catch-up?

The Elephant in the Room: Risks

Then there are the risks that come with Bitcoin itself. Its volatility is legendary. Recessionary economic shocks, technological dislocation (hello quantum computing!), or other unpredictable black swan events would surely tank its price value.

The environmental impact of Bitcoin mining continues to be a hot button issue. Despite promising efforts to transition to renewable energies, the figure is still massive. Would regulators and the public continue to accept this under such circumstances if Bitcoin’s price were to explode, creating even more justification for these energy-intensive Bitcoin mining operations?

The third and much uglier truth, which is Bitcoin’s association with illicit activities. Even as the underlying technology affords everyone transparency, it has likewise served as a bedrock for money laundering, ransomware attacks, and numerous other criminal enterprises. Can Bitcoin really reach mainstream adoption while continuing to wrestle with its image as a sanctuary for the underbelly of society?

Saylor's prediction hinges on everything going perfectly. It requires unwavering political support and enabling policy. Further, it must do so without frequent and disruptive technological disruptions that could reduce tolerance for its environmental degradation and connections to criminal activity. That’s a tall order to ask in the next 21 years.

I'm not suggesting Bitcoin is doomed. Far from it. It’s a double-edge technology Revolutionary technology with the potential to transform finance for the better. Let's be realistic. A $21 million Bitcoin by 2046? That’s quite a promise, one that needs quite a bit more than blind faith. It requires a constructive dose of skepticism and a rigorous risk analysis. Otherwise, we’re just letting the Pied Piper lead us over the cliff into a tech-dystopian-financial-fantasylala land. You and I—and the people we work for—deserve better than that.